project aims

The overall aim of this FREE-funded project is to develop and validate improved modelling tools to enable prediction of current and future frequency and severity of groundwater flooding events.

A new integrated, spatially-distributed, modelling approach will be developed, consisting of climate, rainfall, soil, unsaturated zone, groundwater and surface water flow models. The project incorporates climate change scenarios and will quantify the propagation of uncertainty through the linked environmental models.

Detailed case study data sets will be used to inform model development, and this approach will also be used to support the development and assessment of simpler methods of groundwater flood risk estimation with the potential for groundwater flood forecasting and regionalised risk assessment.

specific project objectives

  • To develop an improved conceptual model of the processes occurring in groundwater flooding in Chalk catchments
  • To develop a methodology for linking existing and new models (including methodology for assessing uncertainty in predictions) within an integrated decision support system
  • To undertake case studies to test the conceptual model, investigate system response, and demonstrate the utility of model integration (Case 1: Berkshire and SW Chilterns, using historical EA/CEH flood data, LOCAR legacy data and groundwater models, Case 2: South Downs/Brighton, building on the Interreg FLOOD1 project data, and Case 3: Hampshire, using EA data to investigate rapid large groundwater level rises associated with recent groundwater flooding events)
  • To assess the potential for future changes in groundwater flooding frequency using the integrated modelling system and a range of GCM/RCM scenarios
  • To develop and evaluate simpler methods for forecasting and regional assessment of groundwater flood risk
  • To engage with other projects in FREE and with the national and international community to stimulate knowledge transfer and user engagement